The Mind Is A House

The mind is a house you can’t escape. You live in your own head, and you’ll be trapped there for the rest of your life.

We all react to this in different ways. You can:

Leave the house for a while.

Drinking lets you open the door and wander around in your front yard.

Meditation lets you make the walls transparent, so you can pretend the house isn’t there.

LSD lets you climb up on the roof for a helicopter tour. But if things go wrong, you punch a hole in the roof and it leaks until you patch it up.

I’ve known people whose happiest moment was the first time they left — it helped them understand that the house was, in fact, a house.

Get roommates.

You can fill your house with replicas of other people.

Some people live with their friends. Some live with their parents. Some live with Jesus.

Some people have really accurate replicas. Others have weird broken versions that love them less and judge them more. I once spent several days being yelled at by a replica of my favorite professor, until I met her in person and realized I’d drawn her eyebrows way too angry.

Some people have houses so crowded that they have to squeeze around people to go anywhere; they might not even have their own rooms.

Roommates can be fun. And sometimes, someone really needs the space — like your kids, or your spouse. But you own the house. Your roommates don’t pay rent. If they trash the place, or insult the host, you can kick them out.

Open the windows.

You can’t escape the house, but you can look outside. Travel opens windows. So does meeting new people. As you create more views, you may feel less cramped inside your house, or learn to appreciate how cozy it is.

Perspective-taking is looking through your window into someone else’s house. If you concentrate, you might be able to walk around inside.

Decorate.

The most compelling reason to get a good education is that it makes the inside of your head an interesting place to spend the rest of your life.

—Judith Shapiro

If you look at art for a while, it might show up on your walls. If you read, you’ll get a mental library. By exploring new fields or philosophies, you can build entire rooms.

Decorating can be addictive. If you spend all your time shelving books and buying art (my weakness), you may find your house a bit stuffy and quiet. I wish I had more roommates.

Learn to keep your house in order.

Window stuck? Roommates won’t leave? Try becoming a better housekeeper.

When I get more sleep, I have an easier time decorating, and I stop tripping over that one broken step.

When I stick to my gratitude journal, the lights seem brighter.

Therapy offers tools: A rag and oil to get the window moving, a lock to keep the roommates out of your space.

But housekeeping alone doesn’t make a home. I’ve known people whose houses were incredibly tidy, but barely decorated; they were dusting empty shelves and wiping white walls.

 

Every single person has a house

I try to remember that everyone has a house.

If someone is an asshole, something might be wrong with their house: mean relatives who won’t leave, a backed-up disposal filling the place with foul odors.

This doesn’t mean you have to help them clean — though you can if you want to. It doesn’t mean you can’t shun them, or put them in actual prison if they hurt someone. But you can feel whatever sympathy seems right, and enjoy knowing that your own house doesn’t smell like garbage.

If someone has a mental illness, something is definitely wrong with their house. Maybe the lights are dim, and there aren’t any windows to let the sun inside. Maybe there’s a radio they can’t turn off, even to sleep. Maybe they have a violent roommate who routinely trashes the place. Whatever’s happening, they can’t escape

Some people are trapped in burning houses; we should put the fires out, even if they don’t want help.

The War on Terrible Decisions

Want to hear a horrifying story?

A middle-class woman and her husband struggle with home and car payments. The woman wants children but feels she can’t afford them.

In a stroke of luck, she inherits $80,000 from her grandmother — enough to pay down debts and even start a family.

She uses it to build a driveway for her father-in-law’s fancy fishing cabin. The reason: “My husband and his father REALLY like fishing…”


I don’t know this woman. Maybe the decision made sense.

But if it didn’t, you wouldn’t be surprised. People make terrible decisions all the time — giving away years of their lives, or tens of thousands of dollars, for very little benefit.

Life would still be hard without this. We’d still have cancer and hurricanes and armed robbery. But much of our misery is self-inflicted.

Terrible decisions

By “terrible decision”, I don’t mean:

  • Impulsive acts, like a bar fight that ends in murder.
  • Premeditated crime, where criminals improve their lives by hurting others.
  • Bad policy, where corrupt politicians and interest groups take our money.

I’m talking about decisions where nearly everyone ends up worse off, including the decision-maker. It’s a fuzzy boundary, but I think the $80,000 driveway counts.

So do these:

There are reasons people do these things. But if they made other decisions, their lives would predictably go better.

How can we reduce terrible decisions?

For the rest of this post, I’m picturing the U.S., but the ideas could apply anywhere.

We have social infrastructure for some of this: drug rehab, small business counseling, legal efforts to stop conversion therapy.

And there are bloggers and podcasters who share good advice widely: the driveway story came from the forum of Mr. Money Mustache, who I’d guess has prevented hundreds of equally terrible decisions.

Nonetheless, people keep making them.1 How can we stop this from happening?

On its face, this is a ridiculous question. There are a thousand kinds of terrible decision, and you can’t monitor 300 million people. But there are also a thousand ways to commit crimes, and we still try to stop those — at least the most damaging ones.

What would it look like to build social infrastructure for reducing terrible decisions in general, the way we try to reduce crime with police and courts?

“Decision police” aren’t the right approach; people have a right to make (most) terrible decisions.

But what about decision counselors? Here’s a half-baked sketch:

  • Once a year, the government offers you $150 to visit a decision counselor, with a small payment to your employer so you can take a half-day. It isn’t mandatory like the DMV or jury duty, but it’s still a normal thing to do.
  • It’s the same counselor you saw last year! You talk about whatever’s new — family, health, money, school, career. (You answered a few questions ahead of time.)
  • She isn’t an expert on any one topic, but she knows enough, and has enough AI support, to notice issues, ask follow-up questions, and refer you to public resources.
    • “Have you thought about ways to save money on that Disney trip?”
    • “I know a pastor who’s helped families in your situation — want his number?”
    • “You’re thinking about X College? Here’s some data on its job placement rate.”
    • “Starting a family is more affordable than you might think; there are federal tax breaks and our state has a baby bonus program. Want to learn more?”
  • If you pay attention and engage in conversation, you get the money. The counselor gets evaluated… somehow.2

Decision counselors are reasonably well-paid state employees. The jobs are taken by the kinds of pleasant, competent people who might otherwise become actuaries, librarians, or social workers. As government jobs go, it’s appealing — at least compared to running a post office or teaching algebra.

Meanwhile, the people who take the $150 will often be those without much access to good advice from peers or paid professionals. They could ignore the advice, but they’ll also know the stories about counselors helping people find apartments or saving them from scammers. If you’re paid to be there anyway, why not ask a few questions?

The service isn’t cheap. But the government already buys you 30 minutes a year with a doctor making $250,000; it can swing 60 minutes with a counselor making $80,000.3


This literal idea probably can’t work. Even with AI help, you’d need to train a few hundred thousand counselors to cover the U.S., and the government would find plenty of ways to corrupt the idea.4 But I think we should look for other ways to get tough on terrible decisions, and to raise society’s bar until more of the ideas that ruin lives are safely underwater.

Tautologies: If You Know, You Know

I

In high school, I convinced my cross-country team to wear shirts that said:

“To run faster, you must run faster.”

Some people didn’t get it. One day, we were stretching next to some cheerleaders, and they began to debate whether the quote had meaning.

“It’s not actually saying anything! It’s like, like…”

“No, it makes sense! You’ve gotta run faster if you want to run faster. There’s no trick.”

When I tell people that story, half agree with Cheerleader #1, the other half with #2. No obvious pattern; some people are just tautology people. If you know, you know.

II

I fucking love tautologies. A logically self-evident statement clears the air: there’s nothing to agree or disagree with. You just have to accept it and move on. It is what it is.

III

A tautology, like the eighteenth camel, can be helpful even if it adds nothing.

My favorite teacher survived a bout with cancer in our senior year and came back smiling. Then Race to the Top broke her spirit: Delaware’s new mandates forced her to teach special ed with no training, making her job feel almost impossible.

One day after school, we talked about it for two hours. She was in tears, not knowing how she’d make it through the next year. I didn’t know what to say: I had no life experience and no understanding of district policy. All I had was tautology:

“If it can’t continue, it won’t continue. Something will change. Maybe they’ll change the rules, or maybe you’ll find a new school. But it won’t be like this forever.”

Somehow, this worked. She was happier when I left. I couldn’t stop Arne Duncan’s reign of terror, but I could help Dr. Greenstone reframe: if it can’t go on like this, it won’t go on like this.

IV

Nature is tautological. An object in motion keeps moving. That which survives, survives.

That second one turned Douglas Adams into a tautology guy:

I thought about that for a while and it finally occurred to me that a tautology is something that if it means nothing, not only that no information has gone into it but that no consequence has come out of it.

So, we may have accidentally stumbled upon the ultimate answer; it’s the only thing, the only force, arguably the most powerful of which we are aware, which requires no other input, no other support from any other place, is self evident, hence tautological, but nevertheless astonishingly powerful in its effects.

“Astonishingly powerful” undersells the point: a good tautology is undeniable. To run faster, you really must run faster. If you can’t run faster, then you won’t run faster — but the only solution is to run faster.

When I designed those cross-country shirts, maybe I was thinking of Adams. Or Ayn Rand, another high school influence. To her, reality itself was tautological: “A is A”.5

V

Back when I streamed Magic: the Gathering, I used to attract viewers with wild decks, then alienate them by playing with an insane degree of conservatism.

“You missed lethal, Aaron!”

“If they had exactly the right three cards, attacking was dangerous.”

“That’s incredibly unlikely!”

“We can kill them later when it’s 100% safe. As long as I don’t lose, I always win.”

In the world championship quarterfinal, I faced a Hall of Famer who was very skilled, but notorious for playing slowly. In the pre-match interview, I explained that I planned to stall until his time ran out. As long as I stopped him from winning, he was guaranteed to lose.

VI

I used to be a professional moderator. The forum I ran had many rules.

If I ever own my own forum, I may try what I call “the perfect moderation policy”:

“If no one becomes a jerk, we won’t have jerks.”

Divisive content is designed to spread. So is divisive behavior. If acting a certain way provokes others to act the same way, the behavior spreads like fire: that’s why they call it a “flame war”.6 You’ll always have would-be provocateurs — but to successfully provoke, they must provoke someone. Ergo, the perfect policy bans becoming provoked.

VII

When I got to Yale, I was delighted to find these banners in our rowing tank:

You can’t avoid the past: it happened. But it only happened in the past. The present is what’s happening now.

Some mantras fail. You won’t always be the best. You won’t always outwork the other team. But last year will always be last year. And if this year doesn’t work out, there’s always next year.

Is it stupid? Maybe. But if it works, it works.

 

The XKCD Canon

If you were born before 2010, give this post to a child instead.

Just kidding, you can read it! But know that I wrote it for Generation Alpha. It was meant to be a bit cringe but funny; I’m not sure it wound up being funny.

 

Hey, kids!

Have your parents or teachers ever shared a stick figure comic like this one?

Cat Proximity

This is XKCD, a webcomic that helped define online culture from 2005-2015.

The author, Randall Munroe, is one of his generation’s great communicators. He wrote the best memes about multiple social phenomena. He invented nerd sniping and ten hundred words. And some of his work reveals important truths about human existence.


The other day, I met a teenager who hadn’t heard of XKCD and had one of these moments:

I wanted to say “go read it!” But then I remembered that most of the comics riff on culture and technology from the late Aughts, and might not appeal to modern teens.

So I used this post to create a canon: the comics people reference most often, and the ones I’d consider “essential” for someone willing to spend 15 minutes on XKCD.7

 

Someone is wrong on the internet

When the Internet first emerged, people rarely argued with strangers who lived thousands of miles away.8 If they won an argument, they got to rub it in someone’s face right up close, and that would’ve been their only argument that week.

The Internet exposed us to an infinite supply of arguments, and made it harder to end them. When they don’t have to show their face, or hear the crowd’s laughter, one person can argue forever. And even if you forced them into retreat, you’d get bogged down debating other people with the same dumb idea. (Meanwhile, they’d be losing sleep over your dumb ideas.)

To cite an even older nerd meme, the trick to winning that game is not to play. So you might hear us use “someone is wrong on the Internet!” to make a friend abandon a hopeless conversation, or as a reminder to ourselves not to crash out because our opps were giving delulu.

See also: Real winners quit

 

Standards

Standards

Many smart people see chaos and assume that no one has tried to organize it. They yearn to create a single, perfect system that everyone will use.

This usually doesn’t work. It’s not impossible — one of Munroe’s examples, charging ports, is close to solved already — but it’s harder than it looks. This goes for standards, databases, rulesets, and any other attempt to systematize how things are done.

Signs someone is about to encounter this:

  • “Let’s put everything into a Wiki!”
  • “We’ll use this tagging system to organize all of our content.”
  • “These five categories will cover all possible examples.”

If a new standard involves our social lives, see “Drama”:

Drama

See also: Everyone will not just, “Falsehoods Programmers Believe About Names

 

Password Strength

Most Gen X-to-Z-ers who use multi-word passwords are probably thinking about this comic. The advice is good.

Just don’t use it the way my wife and I did — setting our wifi password to “HorseBattery” because we’d already memorized it.

 

Dependencies

Dependency

This comes out whenever a single company’s service outage collapses the Internet for a day. Now that AI systems are becoming elite hackers, you might see it a lot more often.

 

Extrapolating

Useful whenever you see someone use current growth rates to reach absurd conclusions.

After all, if past growth really predicted future growth:

  • A single Bitcoin would sell for $73,000.
  • COVID would have been a pandemic.
  • We’d be marching toward an AI singularity.

(Just playing with you, Randall — it’s a great comic, no cap.)

 

Ten Thousand

Ten Thousand

Everything you know came from somewhere. There was a day you went from ignorance to knowledge. Those days should be celebrated, not mocked.9

When you go the opposite way and give people too much credit for knowing things, you get “Average Familiarity”:

Average Familiarity

 

Sheeple

Sheeple

When you care a lot about issues that most people ignore, those people may seem broadly ill-informed. But it doesn’t mean they aren’t thoughtful or complex. Everyone has their own collection of cares and worries; we’re all conscious of something.10

If you find yourself thinking of average people as “sheeple” or “NPCs” or whatever label your generation uses, you’re probably underestimating them. Reading Working or watching Life in a Day makes it harder to fall into this mindset.

 

Free speech

Free Speech

This is correct, but the devil is in the details. Sometimes:

  • Most people agree with you, but enough people think you’re an asshole to make your life miserable.
  • Someone you like disappears through that door.
  • The door you show the assholes opens into an equally crowded room, where they discover a gigantic audience you weren’t aware of.
  • The other room’s audience is big enough to let the assholes take over the government, claim that their opponents are the real assholes, and start arresting them for what they say.
    • But the comic says they can’t do that!
    • The comic is right. But if people get used to showing other people the door, it’s easy to lose the distinction between “the government tacitly supports it” and “the government actively participates”.

But this isn’t Munroe’s fault. At the time, this was a good contribution to an exhausting debate; you can only do so much with a six-panel webcomic.

 

The rest of the canon

These aren’t quite as influential, but everyone in certain parts of Twitter has seen them at least once:

Meanwhile, Time and Money are brilliant comics that are too big to share.

 

Too Good for the Greater Good

In college, I temped for a headhunting firm. They taught me to spam engineers with LinkedIn messages, to recruit for an app called Spoon. I sucked at this, because I hate bothering people. (I didn’t know what headhunting was when I took the job.)

I customized every message for a human touch, ignored anyone who looked busy in their profile picture, and reached a third as many people as the other temp. Together, we convinced about six engineers to let us call them.

Spoon’s CEO was not happy. To make a point, he spent an hour sending his own messages, which were brief and clearly written by an engineer. He got more bites than we did in a week. 

Unfortunately, he didn’t have much time to recruit; he was too busy being a CEO. Someone good enough to impress an engineer through LinkedIn can use their time for better things.

This is what Patrick McKenzie calls “The Sort”:

The Sort is the world’s way of moving people to wherever their talents will produce the most money. It sends mathematicians to Jane Street, Dominicans to the MLB, and Justin Bieber to Universal Music Group.

But it doesn’t just show up in the economy. It’s also there in the curse of cryonics:

If something is important but doesn’t pay well, it’s hard to get people with expensive skills (or even the cheaper skill of “noticing important problems”) to do it. Cryonics could conceivably compete for talent with the tech industry, because it pays in expected utility and the glow of a holy mission — but AI safety crushes it on both fronts.11


My employer, 80,000 Hours, is at war with the Sort. We take people who could earn millions of dollars in a frontier lab or corporate law firm and nudge them toward jobs that pay much less but might save the world.

We also have to fight the internal Sort that misallocates talent even within our AI safety bubble. I’m writing a profile on fieldbuilding — the unsexy work of developing talent and building infrastructure to help the field grow. It’s a lot like tech recruiting: the best candidates are AI researchers and ace networkers, but the researchers want to write papers and the networkers want to write policy. Our current strategy is to yell “please do fieldbuilding — nine out of ten leaders say it’s more impactful!” and hope that people listen.


Ways to get around the Sort:

Pay more money. This is the obvious and most visible answer. You see it whenever the smartest college grads flock to a new field. Trad finance -> quant finance -> AI. 

Unfortunately, doing this requires enough money to outbid the companies that already bought the smartest people and put them to work making more money.

Add a sprinkling of prestige. When 80,000 Hours and Coefficient Giving yell about fieldbuilding, we’re making a rational argument about impact — and also sending a signal that trustworthy, competent organizations will be proud if you run conferences instead of writing papers (in a world where papers are considered “cool”). 

On a grander scale, Teach for America got quite a few Yale grads to take ordinary teaching jobs — though few stuck around.12

Make the work more fun. Many professional Magic: the Gathering players also play poker. I’d guess that poker pays between ten and infinity times as much per hour. But Magic is more fun, so the pros trade lucrative time in fancy casinos for sub-minimum-wage time in conference centers with concrete floors.

The best fanfiction is considerably better than Amazon’s top fantasy novels, especially if you correct for the absence of editors. Nonetheless, its authors write for free: HarperCollins won’t let you put Naruto in your story (or show him in a three-way with Hinata and Sakura).

Dig deeper for talent. Every so often, society cracks open a new source of human talent. It sends everyone to school; starts hiring women; builds fútbol academies in Brazil and chip factories in Taiwan. 

For a while, it looked like our next expansion pack would come from ending lead poisoning and giving kids the right amount of iodine. But artificial brains came faster. We’re about to have all the talent we can use; I hope it doesn’t Sort us out of existence.


There are some people the Sort can’t reach.

My wife is a cancer surgeon. Most cancer surgeons do the job because they love removing cancer. As long as the patient survives, they’re satisfied. 

My wife prefers the art of reconstruction: putting patients back together with as much function as possible. (This week, she returned an ear to its rightful place and gave someone a new nostril.) Most people like her wind up doing facial plastics, which pays better than surgical oncology and gets you home earlier. But she likes saving lives too much to give up on cancer.

I don’t know what the world can learn from my wife. She’s unrelentingly stubborn and insanely dedicated to healing — the person who helped me found an effective altruism club and then almost boycotted the whole concept because 80,000 Hours told her not to be a doctor. But even if she doesn’t generalize, it’s pretty cool to watch her shrug off one of the century’s primary sociological phenomena through sheer willpower. Love you, Tammy!

 

Clean Something Day

On holidays, we all agree to make time for something important.

On Thanksgiving, we visit family (and our families know to expect us, and most people have the day off). On Halloween, we dress up and act silly and roam the streets (and everyone rolls with it, and the streets are safe and well-lit). 

What other important things do we struggle to find time for?

Cleaning comes to mind. We all have clutter; it weighs on our minds and drains our energy. We should take a day each year to beat it back.


On Clean Something Day, everyone takes time to clean. It can be physical or digital. It can be your space or someone else’s — even a public space. You can clean with friends or strangers. The only rule is to end the day cleaner than you started.

Three days of cleaning, years apart, gave me this idea:

San Francisco

I went to visit a friend. He was happy to see me, but clearly distressed by the state of his bachelor apartment. After his third apology “for the mess”, I suggested we cancel our plans and clean the place instead: “I’ve just been reading Marie Kondo and I want a chance to try it out.” (This was true.)

I knew him well enough to think he’d appreciate the suggestion, and I was right. After a couple of hours, his apartment looked much better — the kind of space he could un-bachelor in, so to speak — and I’d learned more about his life in the course of sorting random objects (“Was this book any good? Where did you thrift this shirt?”).

San Diego

I lived at One Miramar Street, which houses hundreds of UC San Diego students. Before they built a bridge, the only way to reach the university on foot was an informal trail through a hole in the fence. A few homeless people set up camp there for a time; they left behind hundreds of cans, bottles, and wrappers, which blew in the wind and wound up covering the entire path.

I used the path myself, and it made me feel a bit sad to see the mess. One Saturday, I got tired of feeling sad and decided to solve the problem. (Most of the problems I face in life are much larger; I felt almost lucky to find one I could handle myself in a few hours.) I bought some gloves and brought a box of trash bags and cleaned. It was a weekend, so there weren’t many students walking; when I saw one, I said something like “just cleaning up!” and no one bothered me. It was also good exercise. That evening, after a shower, I felt cleansed myself.

The path stayed clean as long as I lived there; I felt a bit happy whenever I saw the absence of mess. We didn’t have any more visitors – but if someone had camped out, I’d have cleaned again after they left.

Berkeley

Today, I sorted the last of the 662 post ideas I brought to Inkhaven, many of which expired before they could be written. My shoulders feel lighter, and I can’t stop smiling when I look at my sparkling, well-tagged Notion database. I can’t wait to write 23 more posts this month. If Clean Something Day had existed all this time, I might have restarted the blog years ago.


Ways to celebrate

  • Visit someone with a messier house — maybe a parent of young kids? — and help them get it under control.
  • Get your friends together for a digital purge party (unused subscriptions, ancient emails, overstuffed folders…)
  • Assemble a volunteer army and clean one of your city’s parks or beaches.
  • Clean your garage. (Doesn’t have to be fancy!)

Whatever you do, set aside the evening to have fun — either in the space you cleaned or somewhere else rewarding.

This can also be a day to celebrate the people who spend their lives cleaning:

  • Leave a tip for the office custodians, or your neighborhood garbage collectors.
  • Organize a gift for the janitors at your child’s school.
  • Give your stay-at-home spouse a break and take over housecleaning for the week. If you don’t know what that entails, this is a good time to learn.

What’s the date?

I suggest March 20 for the spring equinox. Spring cleaning already exists — what better way to start the new season?

But since many people already clean in spring, a fall date would offer year-round coverage. So my second option is October 9th — Marie Kondo’s birthday.

 

Posts I Will Not Be Writing

Inkhaven lasts for one month. If you don’t publish 500 words by midnight, you leave the next day.

On the first day, I published at 11:59 pm. On the second day, I published at 11:59 pm and 55 seconds.

I’m a fast writer – the hard part is choosing what to write. I brought a list of 662 ideas with me, collected over thirteen years. After a week of processing, I’ve deleted or archived 170 and tagged 138 for later consideration, with another 354 still in the queue.

Rather than stare at the list of 138 today, I’ll sample from the other 170. These are posts I will not be writing: I think you’ll understand.

 

Past Aaron missed the boat

Ideas logged between 2015 and 2018:

“How to beat ISIS through advertising”

Based loosely on a set of posts from Scott Adams. Today, ISIS is mostly dead, though it outlived Scott Adams.

“Against bioethics”

This was already stale (albeit correct) in 2016. But I wrote an entire essay. And then left it on read for ten years! I could have been playing Pokemon Go instead!

“On trans bathrooms: Get over it.”

I’m sure this would have been the butterfly that won Hillary the election.

“Responding to Tyler Cowen on effective altruism”

Another finished essay. Would’ve worked on the EA Forum had I known the Forum existed. Two years later, I was running the Forum, but it was too late.

“The internet is not fake!”

Max Read claimed the internet was mostly fake. I disagreed. Time has proven someone right: that person is Max Read.

 

Past Aaron did not anticipate Donald Trump

“A brief guide to the alt-right”

The idea was to share a few sample Tweets for people who’d never looked under that particular rock. And now the rock is where we live.

“Are Nazis worth our attention?”

The post asked: why focus on small groups of people with extreme views, left or right, when they aren’t likely to end up holding any power?

“Things I appreciate about the right wing”

It was 80% libertarian stuff and 20% principled conservatism. Claude thinks I should put a punchline here, but you know the punchline.

“Is anyone actually doing something about free speech on campus?”

(Whispers to my past self) “Oh! Wait. Oh. Oh no. Oh god no.”

 

Past Aaron cultivated an air of mystery

“A review of Free Thoughts, by Jamie Whyte”

A review of what? By who? 

The good news is that a book I’ve forgotten entirely probably wasn’t a good choice to review (no offense to Jamie, whoever you are).

“Why buy expensive watches? What does ‘expensive’ even mean?”

I might have been cooking with this, but I didn’t leave a single note besides the title, so I have no way of knowing.

“Politicians are not reliable”

This one had a ton of notes. But they were all excerpts from John Boehner’s Wikipedia page with zero commentary. I think I was just… mad at him?

 

Past Aaron left the mine before he hit diamonds

“A simple explanation of how Bitcoin works.”

I began drafting this in 2015 to make myself learn about Bitcoin. Never finished, never bought Bitcoin. It’s up 28,000%.

“The future paradise view”

This post suggested judging actions by how much they contributed to the chance of reaching a utopian state — with certain boundaries around human rights. It further suggested that the most reliable way to reach utopia would be to sustain economic growth.

If any of this sounds familiar, it’s because Tyler Cowen did it. (He probably had the idea first, too.)

“Shouldn’t there be a way to mass-produce marble statues?”

Monumental Labs did it.

 

Past Aaron hated me and wanted me to suffer

“Time and the minimum basic income”

Aaron! You can’t just write down two concepts and expect me to do the rest of the work!

“I read every chart on Our World in Data. Here’s what I found.”

Nope, nope, not doing that.

“Racism is overrated, because almost everyone of every race is bad at almost everything”

Monkey Puppet - Meming Wiki

From the notes, this had the seeds of a moving essay on the human weakness that unites us all — seeds I will not be planting.

Progression Realism: Grinding Your Way to World Domination

On her first day of college, Rachel wakes up with a superpower: She can write a plan for the day, and she will always follow it. She won’t open Instagram even once.

She spends that first day asking Claude for strategies to become successful. On the second day, she reads How to Win Friends and Influence People. By the end of the week, she’s on good terms with most of her professors, and she’s caught the eye of a sophomore whose father runs a Fortune 500 company.

Grindset fantasy

In a standard progression fantasy, the protagonist is a weak-to-normal denizen of a magical world who becomes one of the most powerful people in history.

It’s a rising genre: Solo Leveling crushed the 2025 Anime Awards and might be the most popular manhwa, and Dungeon Crawler Carl is currently #7 on the Amazon charts.

Protagonists advance by having a broken magical ability or secret knowledge. But most of them also have a second ability, which typically goes unremarked: something I’ll call “perfect willpower”. They don’t get tired or distracted. They don’t get lost in a good book. They just grind.

But never mind the fantasy

Progression realism (PR) removes the magic and leaves the perfect willpower. Our hero is just like us — sans akrasia. They plan ahead, follow through, and never procrastinate.

Perfect willpower interests me because in theory, we could all have it. Most of us can’t run a four-minute mile with any amount of training, but there is no physical law that stops me from getting up tomorrow, carefully writing out my priorities, and then working on them in order of importance until I fall asleep.

Regardless, I’ve never had one of those days. Even the most productive, driven people on the planet don’t reliably have those days. Something always trips them up — impulsiveness, addiction, unresolved character flaws. Elon Musk used ketamine. Angela Merkel was too reactive. Genghis Khan wasn’t a long-term thinker. And Lyndon Baines Johnson…

…actually, LBJ is basically a PR protagonist. He spent forty years leveraging his friends and responsibilities to seize increasing amounts of power, with insane focus throughout. A fellow politician once said: “I never knew a man could work that hard.” Robert Caro’s The Path to Power might be the first work of progression realism.


At the end of her first semester, Rachel’s grades are perfect. Her boyfriend is head over heels, and she doesn’t plan to leave him for a while — but if she did, his father would still hire her. She’s reading a lot of books (and detailed outlines, courtesy of Claude). Her memory isn’t great, but she’s using spaced repetition to develop a mental map of useful concepts — mostly finance and marketing, with enough science to sound smart and distinguish experts from charlatans.

She sprints and swings a kettlebell twice a week. She has a beautiful personal website and a growing Substack audience. The books make it easy to find ideas, and readers love the way she blends time-tested insights with quirky stories from college life. Some of the stories are even true.

She’s made arrangements to intern for her local representative next semester: some things need to be learned up close, and she plans to win some friends along the way.

Would this actually be good?

In theory, PR combines three successful genres: progression fantasy, self-help, and biographies of successful people. Caro’s books are bestsellers, and non-historical progression realism lets you do the same thing much faster by making things up.

I don’t see why someone couldn’t write an interesting book (or endless webfiction saga) about a normal person grinding their way to world domination one good day at a time. I’d read it!

The canonical way to do this thing I just invented

I’d suggest the following “rules” for the genre. Like any rules, you can break them, but that shouldn’t be the default.

  • Big dreams. You could write PR for almost any goal, but the fun part (for me) is thinking about how someone would optimize for something big: influence, money, fame.
  • No second superpower. The protagonist should be smart enough to learn most things, but they shouldn’t be the smartest person in the story. Likewise, don’t make them supermodel gorgeous or the heir to a vast fortune. It’s more fun to see them acquire knowledge, beauty, and wealth using willpower!
  • Realistic rivals. The worst progression fantasy takes a Very Special protagonist and surrounds them with bumbling idiots to make them even specialer. As a PR protagonist rises to prominence, they should interact with other prominent people, and those people should have enough talent not to get steamrolled. This is the time to pull out supermodels and geniuses — or maybe someone else with the same superpower.

Rachel graduates one year early. Her friends are sad to lose her, but they know she’ll keep in touch; Rachel is incredible at keeping in touch. Her local representative compares her to a young Hillary Clinton, and Rachel knows she’ll have a big endorsement when she makes her first run at local office.

But first, she needs to build a war chest. Her Y Combinator pitch is next week. It’s fine that she never picked up much programming; she has Claude Code and three of the sharpest young engineers on the Eastern seaboard (who compare her to Sam Altman, “but not evil”).

People say the future will be hard for humans, but those people haven’t met Rachel. Yet.

CPR: A Heroic Thought Experiment

Imagine that an all-knowing genie manifests in your bedroom.

The genie tells you that sometime in the next ten years, you will have a chance to save a total stranger from dying by performing CPR.

But you don’t know when it will happen, and there’s no guarantee you’ll succeed when the time comes.

How would you respond? How would your life change, from that moment?

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